Foreign worker arrivals already in line with 2026 reductions—more than 100,000 fewer than 2025 targets
Arrivals of foreign workers in Canada this year are already in line with 2026 reductions, with the federal government likely to undershoot their 2025 target by more than 100,000 workers by the end of the year.
If the current pace of arrivals continues, the government may admit roughly 202,923 foreign workers (adjusted for seasonality based on 2024 trends) by December 31 of this year, against a 2025 arrivals target of 367,750.
Admissions at these levels more closely resemble Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s (IRCC’s) admission target for foreign workers in 2026, which stands at 230,000 as of the latest Immigration Levels Plan.
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Current foreign worker admissions levels and the trajectory for new admissions
In the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, the federal government set an admissions target of 367,750 total new foreign workers this year: 82,000 through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and 285,750 through the International Mobility Program (IMP).
Between January and August of this year, the government welcomed just 154,515 new foreign workers through both work permit programs, with admissions rates spiking between April and June under both the IMP and the TFWP (mirroring 2024 trends). These arrival numbers are detailed below:
Month Temporary Foreign Worker PermitsInternational Mobility Program Permits
25-Jan 3,895 11,005
25-Feb 3,320 11,070
25-Mar 4,795 13,750
25-Apr 7,750 15,890
25-May 7,470 16,205
25-Jun 6,470 17,555
25-Jul 5,420 13,030
25-Aug 4,195 12,695
Total 43,315 111,200
Assuming that Canada’s current work permit regulations will not change through the remainder of the year (i.e., the next two months), we decided to model 2025 admissions to 2024 trends to get a better idea of how many foreign workers Canada may welcome this year.
To do so, we calculated the proportion of workers who arrived in 2024 between January and August that year, as a function of overall worker admissions, to better adjust for seasonal differences in temporary foreign worker arrivals.
Between January and August of 2024, Canada welcomed 67,935 temporary foreign workers under the TFWP and 232,975 workers under the IMP.
The following table breaks down the numbers expressed as a percentage of total worker admissions that year under both programs:
TFWP Admissions (January to August 2024) Total TFWP admissions in 2024 Percentage of temporary foreign workers welcomed between January to August (TFWP)
67,935 93,595 72.58%
IMP Admissions (January to August 2024) Total IMP admissions in 2024 Percentage of temporary foreign workers welcomed between January to August (IMP)
232,975 300,115 77.63%
Assuming that the current worker admissions between January and August of 2025 (under both programs) constitute the same proportions of overall admissions as in 2024, we can now project how many total workers Canada may welcome this year with some basic algebra:
“Yearly admissions total x (y) = Workers admitted from January to August”
Where (y) represents the known percentage that we derived above.
Therefore, “Yearly admissions total = Workers admitted from January to August / (y)”
Using this formula, we projected the following total admissions under both the TFWP and the IMP in 2025 (rounded to the nearest whole number):
Projected 2025 totals TFWP Projected 2025 totals IMP Overall worker admissions in 2025
59,679 143,244 202,923
Based on our projections, Canada will only welcome a total of 202,923 foreign workers this year, under both work permit programs.
These numbers fall far below stated temporary foreign worker admissions for this year, as detailed in the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, with the greatest reduction seen in IMP work permits:
TFWP IMP Total
Projected totals in 2025 59,679 143,244 202,923
Admissions target (2025) 82,000 285,750 367,750
Difference to 2025 targets -22,321 -142,506 -164,827
In contrast, the current pace of admissions is much closer to the targets for 2026 admissions, and even fall below the overall 230,000 foreign worker target for next year:
TFWP IMP Total
Projected totals in 2025 59,679 143,244 202,923
Admissions target (2026) 60,000 170,000 230,000
Difference to 2026 targets -321 -26,756 -27,077
Policies that have led to the drastic reductions in temporary foreign worker levels
Over the course of 2024 and 2025, Canada’s federal government instituted a number of work permit policies to reduce the number of foreign workers in the country in response to housing supply and general affordability pressures.
These policies are part of IRCC’s commitment to reduce the number of temporary residents (international students and foreign workers) to 5% of the country’s population by the end of 2027.
These measures include
Data provided by IRCC indicates that the government is also likely to miss its 2025 admissions target for new international students—international student arrivals in 2025 are also in line with the 2026 targets.
The already-present impacts of missing worker admissions
While the long-term impacts of fewer foreign workers are yet to be seen, the immediate impact of reduced admissions on housing supply can already be felt.
According to a recent TD report, a reduction in temporary resident levels has contributed to lower growth in rental prices and lower growth in unemployment.
Canada’s Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has reported similar reductions in rental prices for the same reason, citing negative growth in rental asking prices in four of Canada’s major metropolitan areas, including Toronto and Vancouver.
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